The Hook: Silva out from one. Dana off of one.

The greatest title reign in UFC history has come to an end.  The frustrating part is that it's basically a footnote, because of the way it transpired.  Instead of being able to appreciate the run Silva put together, everyone's talking about the way it ended (and rightfully so, unfortunately).  There seems to be two camps of people: people who think Silva got caught, by being cocky, and people who think he wasn't that interested in winning the fight.  The truth is, no one really knows which one it was.  Me?  I'm in-between.  Originally, I thought it was the former.  After seeing Silva's post-fight interview, I started thinking it was the latter.  But after letting things settle a bit, I think that it may have been a little of both (if I had to guess).

Maybe he was a little tired or stressed and lacking proper motivation.  Maybe he was trying to win and did just make a mistake, and the things he expressed afterward were subconscious feelings that he was just realizing.  The reason I think it may be a little of both is because of his behavior.  He's no stranger to using provocation, but he did so more than usual in this fight.  He wasn't just dropping his hands, something he's done many times before, but he would also act like he was wobbly.  That behavior was even more egregious than what he did against Demian Maia.  And there's no way that he thought Chris Weidman's striking deserved the same lack of respect that he gave Maia's (and then some).

Regardless of whether or not his behavior during the fight was born of cockiness or some level of disinterest, it took away from Weidman's victory.  That wasn't a fight that proved Weidman was better.  It proved that Silva shouldn't behave that way ever again.  If they do a rematch, I hope it's because Silva wants to have one and not because Dana convinces him to do one ($).  Because if this fight happens again, Weidman needs to fight a clearly motivated Silva.  That way if he wins, we can all give him the proper respect he would indisputably deserve.  But unless that happens, it will be hard to take this victory without a grain of salt.  No one knows what was in Silva's head, but we may get some indication in the near future.  If he doesn't demand a rematch, doesn't that prove that he wasn't 100% dedicated to keeping the title?

Whatever happens next needs to be Silva's choosing.  If he fights Weidman again, it needs to be because he really wants the belt back.  If he wants a new challenge other than Middleweight?  Well then it sucks for Weidman that he wouldn't get to prove beyond a shadow of a doubt that he's better than Silva.  But at least if Silva were to vacate the division, we could actually be headed down a path that ends with him facing Jon Jones.  So something good should come of this.  We'll either get a Silva-Weidman rematch that puts all doubt to rest, or we could be starting down the path to an amazing Light Heavyweight title fight.  A fight that I would still be very interested in seeing, because - as crazy as it was against Weidman - would he really try that "gameplan" with Jones?  If there was ever going to be one non-Heavyweight in the world that Anderson Silva wouldn't drop his hands against, it would be Jon Jones.  It's the one fight that would (or at least should) guarantee a completely motivated Silva.  And now that he doesn't hold the title, he's technically free to move up.  So maybe Silva losing didn't end the prospect of a Jones fight.  Maybe it made it more likely.  Because, like I wrote on Saturday, I don't think a super fight would've ever happened (Silva-GSP or Silva-Jones).

If it was going to, it would've been done by now.  Back in the summer of 2009, right after Silva destroyed Forrest Griffin, I wanted to see a Silva-GSP super fight.  Obviously it never came together.  And why not?  Was it because their schedule's weren't lined up?  Nope.  They fought two weeks apart.  Was it because they both had deserving contenders waiting in the wings?  Not really.  GSP's next fight was against Dan Hardy and Silva's was against Demian Maia.  Does anyone really believe that the UFC would let Hardy and Maia stand in the way of what could have been one of the biggest fights of all-time, had they really wanted to make that fight happen? 

Even if the UFC believed Hardy and Maia were deserving contenders, it's not like they haven't bypassed deserving contenders - in order to set up big-money fights - before.  For example, Nick Diaz (coming off a loss) getting a title shot over Johny Hendricks.  Chael Sonnen was a Middleweight coming off a loss.  He got a title shot, because there were no better options, right?  Like say, Anderson Silva?  It's a super fight that Dana White supposedly wanted to happen.  So why didn't it happen?  That's right, Silva was taking time off and Jones had to film TUF with, and then fight, Sonnen.  The fight that Dana claims he wanted to happen didn't happen because Silva was taking time off and Jones was fighting Sonnen?  Yep.  Dana totally wanted this fight to happen.  And it was going to happen.  Unless of course vacation and an undeserving Middleweight got in the way.  But other than that, this fight was totally going to happen.

While it sucks to see the greatest title reign in UFC history come to an end, at least Dana White no longer has to pretend to want to set up super fights.

Pipe Dream Fight

Months ago, I wrote about what I thought was the biggest dream fight the UFC could make: Anderson Silva versus Jon Jones.  Well, what was once a dream may soon be a reality.  According to Dana White, if Silva gets past Chris Weidman tonight, we could see him fight Jones.  There's only one problem; I think it's bs.  I don't think Dana has any true intention of setting up this fight.  Why?  Because I think setting up the fight could have negative repercussions that the UFC doesn't want to deal with.  For starters, I think it's possible that the fight would be too hyped.  I believe Silva-Jones is the biggest fight that the UFC could put on.  The problem becomes where do you go from there?  After Jones fights Silva, it's possible that it would be difficult to drum up interest in future Jones fights (at least the ones immediately following it).  Let's say Jones beat Silva, how then is the UFC supposed to successfully market Jones versus, say, Glover Teixeira or a rematch with Machida?  The problem with a super fight is that it makes everything else seem less special by comparison.  Maybe the UFC thinks that would be the case.

Even more so, I think the problem they don't want to deal with is that either Silva or Jones would have to lose.  If Silva were to lose, they'd now be faced with having a champion coming off a loss; and no longer being able to tout Silva being undefeated in the octagon.  If Jones were to lose, his drawing power would take a small hit.  And if it was for the title, does that mean Silva would hold two titles?  Or would he vacate the Middleweight title?  Right now the UFC has two dominant champions that they can market.  That goes away with a super fight.

This isn't to say that I think the fight shouldn't happen.  It's just the reasons I think the UFC doesn't want it to happen.  Just to be sure, I really hope Silva wins tonight.  Because if he loses, the UFC obviously has an out for not pairing him with Jones.  But if he wins, I'll be interested to see what "reason" Dana comes up with for why the fight won't come together.

Silva versus Jones may be the obvious dream fight.  Unfortunately, I think it's just a pipe dream.

Chael Sonnen versus himself

After losing to Jon Jones, Chael Sonnen hinted that he was probably going to retire.  He said that there's no point in fighting, if you can't work your way to a title fight.  Unless he was actually planning on retiring, that was a dumb thing to say.  He put himself in a no-win situation, because now he's either forced to do something he doesn't want to do (retire) or something he said he wasn't going to do (continue fighting without contending).  He boxed himself into a corner.

Or did he?

Maybe there's actually a way Sonnen could capitalize on what he said, instead of backtracking from it.  Right now, Sonnen's in this middle ground where he's not close to a title shot and he might not be close to retirement.  So if he can't fight to prove he's a contender, why not fight to prove that he's not ready to retire?  How he should do that is by putting his career on the line.  He should announce that he will in fact retire...once he's beaten.

Sonnen has said he doesn't really have any interesting fights at Middleweight.  That's true.  But by putting his career on the line, it wouldn't be Chael Sonnen vs. Mark Munoz or Vitor Belfort; it would be Chael Sonnen vs. his career.  It's perfect, because it provides a built-in angle to promote his fights.  He doesn't have to be promoted as a contender, nor does he have to be relegated to being a gatekeeper.  It's just about him trying to save his career.

The irony is that it's not only the best way to keep him relevant outside of the title picture, but it's also his best (and probably only) path back into it.  Imagine the buzz it would create if he put together a winning streak.  Every win would raise the stakes for his next fight; and it could do the seemingly impossible and make the prospect of Sonnen fighting for a title actually interesting (not to mention that it could actually set up the fight Sonnen proposed once upon a time: title vs. career).  I think it would sell too, because it wouldn't be about Sonnen facing Silva (assuming Silva was still the champion).  It would be about Sonnen facing the ultimate stakes a fighter ever could: he'd either reaching the highest point of his career or the end of it.  No middle ground.  It would truly be "go big or go home".

Unfortunately, Sonnen's already basically backtracked on his retirement by calling out Wanderlei Silva (just as Dave Doyle predicted).  But if he doesn't want to fully undermine his post-fight comments, and would rather capitalize on them, all he has to do is put his career on the line.

The key to keeping Chael Sonnen's career relevant is for him to risk ending it.

UFC on Fox 7 review

The 7th installment of the UFC on Fox was a good to very good show, which I was fortunate enough to be able to attend live.  I missed the two Facebook prelims, but I arrived before the Dillashaw-Viana fight that kicked off the FX broadcast; which turned out to be a great way to get things started and the decisive finish was a preview of things to come.  This event was chock-full of (T)KOs, tying a UFC record with 8, which included impressive performances by Chad Mendes, Joseph Benavidez, and Matt Brown.  But the performance that stands out the most to me was the one turned in by Josh Thomson.  To be the first one to TKO Nate Diaz, and have it include Diaz's corner throwing in the towel, is pretty remarkable and it was quite a sight to see.  It was definitely the highlight of the night.  The only downside to having so many finishes is the delay between fights.  Most of the time it was manageable, but I think there was about a 30 minute gap between the last fight on FX and the first fight on Fox.

As far as the fights that went the distance, they were mostly ok.  The only one that didn't really hold my interest was the Carmont-Larkin fight; which apparently was a good thing, considering the controversy surrounding the decision.  The Mir-Cormier fight was disappointing for a couple of reasons.  First off, a fight that primarily consists of clinching isn't the most exciting display, especially without the benefit of commentary.  It's just not a style that translates well live.  The other reason that it was disappointing was that I was personally hoping to see Mir get dominated.  Him and Tito are probably the two fighters I enjoy booing the most.  Ironically, the only other event I've been to had Tito fighting Rashad Evans.  So I've had the pleasure of booing both guys, but neither fight was particularly satisfying (from a results standpoint).  The Tito-Rashad fight had a little more back and forth and had better crowd involvement (including "Tito" and "Tito sucks" chants), which wasn't the case with Mir-Cormier.

The main event was good, but not great.  I think the problem was that both fighters fought similar stylistically, so it ended up being more of a stalemate.  There weren't really any big exchanges or any moments where it looked like one fighter might be finished.  It was more just point, counterpoint.  The fight playing out this way also led to a close decision, with fans split on who won.  This seems to be a frequent occurrence in the division (Edgar-Penn, Edgar-Maynard, Edgar-Henderson and now Henderson-Melendez).  And with Maynard-Grant being a number one contender's fight, it's possible that such a fight could happen again (if Maynard wins).  This is where Pettis moving down to face Aldo hurts the division, because Pettis' style would force Henderson to be offensive.  I don't think you can go conservative against Pettis or he'll make you pay.  So hopefully Pettis moves back up in the near future (Aldo can move up too).

While the main event wasn't as good as anticipated, it didn't really hamper the event.  It's always fun seeing the fighter's live; even the ones who aren't on the card.  I was a couple sections over from the preshow desk, so of course I saw Dominick Cruz, Chael Sonnen and Brian Stann (I saw Brian take some pictures with fans in between the FX and Fox broadcasts).  The other fighter's I saw were Nick Diaz, Jake Shields, Cain Velasquez, and Ronda Rousey.  Diaz and Shields came out during the prelim fights.  Nick wasn't out very long (don't know if he had something to do or if he didn't want the attention), but Jake seemed to sign every autograph and take every picture.  Big props to him, as well as Ronda.  She was signing autographs and taking pictures for what seemed like forever, as her presence created the biggest commotion.  Doesn't seem like it will be long before she's in the top two or three most popular fighters (if she's not there already).  I think Cain signed some autographs as well (not sure for how long though).  Uriah Faber was also there, but I only saw him on the big screen.  I don't believe they showed Cain or Ronda on the big screen, which surprised me.  The only other famous person I recognized was Aldon Smith, who was most likely there to support Cormier.

All in all, I'd say it was a good show.  Most of the fights delivered, and that's all you can really ask for.  I'd probably rate the event somewhere between an 8 and an 8.9.

The Dream Fight

In the MMA world, the major dream fight being talked about right now is Anderson Silva versus Georges St. Pierre.  I was completely on board with this fight happening...three years ago.  But some things have happened since then that has made me change my mind.  The first was that it was pointed out that the risk-reward for each fighter is disproportionate.  GSP has more to gain than to lose and Silva has more to lose than to gain.  What shame does GSP have in losing to Silva?  On the other hand, what is there to gain from Silva beating a smaller fighter?  Silva beating GSP wouldn't be that impressive.  The same even goes for GSP beating Silva, after what happened at UFC 117 (where Chael Sonnen took, and held down, Silva at will).  Yes, there were questionable circumstances surrounding the fight (Silva being injured, Sonnen on PEDs etc.), but the fact remains that the novelty of seeing Silva dominated through wrestling is gone.  That's the problem with this fight.  The outcome will almost certainly resemble either GSP-Serra I (albeit more legitimately) or Silva-Sonnen I (albeit more legitimately).  It doesn't have the unpredictable nature that a dream fight should have.

The next thing that happened was UFC 128 and the beginning of Jon Jones' ascension up the P4P rankings.  Jones' victory over Shogun was the most dominant title win I'd seen since that of one Anderson Silva.  It was this precise moment that the prospect of a Jones-Silva fight surpassed Silva-GSP.  Silva and Jones are two of the, if not the, best and most creative strikers in the sport.  This fight is not predictable.  Technically Jones could employ a Sonnen-like gameplan, but there's also the possibility that something happens that's never been done before (Jones getting picked apart or vice versa); something that's not possible with GSP.  Not to mention that, unlike GSP-Silva, the loser doesn't take a big hit.  If Jones were to lose, then it would be to the greatest fighter of all-time.  And if Silva were to lose, it would be to a younger fighter just entering his prime (and could be on his way to being the greatest of all-time).  It's a win-win.  Both fighters would be helped by a win and not that hurt by a loss.

Not only is Silva-Jones a more exciting, even, and unpredictable matchup, but both fighters are in similar situations of not really having imminent contenders.  Other than postponing a potential Dan Henderson-Jon Jones fight (which could've been avoided had the UFC just rescheduled Henderson-Jones, instead of irrationally plugging in a completely undeserving Chael Sonnen), neither division would be held up by a super fight. That's not the case with the Welterweight division.  GSP has both Nick Diaz and Johnny Hendricks waiting in the wings (not to mention Rory MacDonald closing in on a title shot).  In fact, I'd much rather see GSP fight Diaz over Silva.  Diaz's boxing and Jiu-Jitsu make for a good stylistic matchup with GSP.  Even if he couldn't beat GSP, he should at least be able to get a great fight out of him (much like Condit just did).

Thankfully, GSP-Diaz is exactly the direction the UFC is going in.   The next step is moving on from the idea of GSP fighting Silva and switching to the true dream fight: Silva versus Jon Jones.

UFC on Fox 5 review

On paper, the UFC's latest Fox event offered easily the best card to date.  It didn't quite live up to my lofty expectations, but it was still a good show.  Part of the problem was the inclusion of Shogun and BJ Penn.  This isn't to criticize the matchmaking.  As I said, these were all great fights (on paper).  The problem is that Shogun and Penn aren't the same fighters anymore, which makes them a gamble.  There's no way of knowing how the fighters are going to show up.  Is it going to be the Shogun from the Dan Henderson/Machida fights or the Shogun from the Vera fight?  Because Shogun is so hit or miss, it makes it hard to judge Gustafsson's performance.  Did he pick him apart because he's just better or because the underwhelming Shogun showed up?  It was still an impressive performance from Gustafsson, but not as much as it could've been, if we could tell for sure that it was the good Shogun that he dominated.

Penn's case is more extreme than Shogun's.  Obviously questions of his preparedness and endurance have surrounded him virtually his whole career.  But as the fight was going on, I started thinking less about how those questions pertained to this fight and more about how they pertained to his career; which led me to this question: has any athlete ever achieved so much while simultaneously leaving so much on the table?  He's the greatest Lightweight fighter of all-time and only the second person in UFC history to hold a title in multiple weight classes, yet it still feels like he greatly underachieved.  If only he had trained with a real trainer and was in shape for every fight, he probably would have beaten GSP the first time, Hughes the second time, Edgar both times, and Fitch.  Could you imagine if BJ had the stamina that Ben Henderson has?  He would've been virtually unbeatable.  Instead, he might be the most accomplished underachiever ever.

In my review of UFC's last Fox event, I mentioned how the UFC is in a tough place because all of their previous superstars are fading.  That continued with this show, as the doors closed more and more for Shogun and Penn.  However, I had also mentioned some new fighters that were becoming must-see (Jon Jones, Junior Dos Santos, Cain Velasquez, and Jose Aldo).  The big positive from this event?  Add Benson Henderson to that list.  On the heels of his fights with Clay Guida and Frankie Edgar, Henderson put together another stellar performance on Saturday night.  He's now what I would call the most entertaining "decision fighter" in the sport.  He's so active and aggressive; it doesn't feel like he's just trying to outpoint his opponent or play it safe.  Great showing from the champ.

In total, the show was a mixed bag.  Swick-Brown was pretty good and Henderson-Diaz was great, but Shogun-Gustafsson and Penn-MacDonald felt more like two stars falling than it did two stars rising; which is a shame.  Hopefully their next fights will be against more consistent fighters (like Machida and Condit, respectively), where potentially dominant performances would say more about them than it would their opponents.  And thankfully there's a quick turnaround to the next Fox event, where two of the three fights (Johnson-Dodson and Pettis-Cerrone) won't be subject to "declining superstar sabotage".  Should be good.

UFC on Fox 4 review

The fourth installment of UFC on Fox was almost a home run.  The team of Menefee, Couture, and Stann did an excellent job, once again, and all the fights were good.  We got to see the return of Mike Swick, which was nice, along with a great fight between Lauzon and Varner and a nice KO from Machida.  The only thing that kept this show from being a home run was the fact that Brandon Vera was in the main event.  He's won three fights in the last in the last three years, none of which were against particularly impressive competition, yet he's in the main event?  I realize he was an injury replacement, but he was not worthy of fighting a contender.

The fact that Vera was even considered for a fight with Shogun is proof that UFC is stretched thin with talent right now; which I think is due to a lack of new stars and too many events.  In the last couple of years, Chuck Liddell, Randy Couture, Forrest Griffin, Matt Hughes, BJ Penn, Rich Franklin, Brock Lesnar, "Minotauro" Nogueira, Rampage, and Tito Ortiz have all retired or essentially become irrelevant.  This has resulted in a pretty big superstar deficiency, because I think the only new "must-see" fighters to come along are Jon Jones, Junior Dos Santos, Cain Velasquez, and Jose Aldo (and I'm not even sure those guys have moved into being automatic draws yet).  As a result, I think the UFC needs to cut back some on the number of events they put on.  With an increasing number of events and a decreasing number of true stars, we're left with situations like Rich Franklin-Wanderlei Silva main eventing a PPV or Brandon Vera headlining a Fox card.

The UFC needs to cut down to 12 PPVs per year.  With a lesser number of events, they'll be able to load shows with more talent.  This will help events that may not have a true money fight and it will help create better replacement fights, in the event of injuries.  Dana has said that fans want more fights, but I think it's better to have quality over quantity.  If some fans want more than 12 PPVs and four Fox cards, then add more FX and Fuel TV cards.  Fans that want to watch as many events as possible would likely be satisfied with non-marquee events.  But when it comes to marquee events, less of them is more.  It's better to have shows too loaded than shows stretched too thin.

UFC on Fox 3 review

This was easily the best showing of UFC on Fox.  The pacing of the show was good, Randy Couture was once again on the panel (always a positive), and I thought Brian Stann did a very good job as an analyst.  Much better than Jon Jones did last time.  Most importantly, the fights were good.  While the first event had almost no action and the second event had pretty uninspired action, this one was solid throughout.

The highlight of the night was Belcher-Palhares.  For Belcher to beat Palhares decisively is pretty impressive.  For him to do it the way he did was remarkable.  The second Palharaes had Belcher's leg, I thought the fight was over.  Not only did he not tap, he proceeded to stay in that position for nearly the remainder of the fight.  Conventional wisdom says it's not smart to fight Palhares on the ground.  It's even less smart to do it with your legs in his guard.  The fact that Belcher neutralized Palhares in the worst position imaginable was just a display of phenomenal groundwork on his part.  Excellent showing from Belcher.  A fight with him and Anderson Silva is becoming more and more intriguing (assuming Silva beats Sonnen).

As for the rest of the card, Berry-Johnson was a good fight to open with, as it was pretty much guaranteed to not go the distance.  And it went as expected.  It was a pretty good fight with a decisive finish.  Koscheck-Hendricks was decent.  Nothing too exciting, but not terribly boring either.  As for the main event, it was pretty much a Nate Diaz showcase.  Very impressive victory for him.  Apparently he has earned a title shot; which is well deserved, I must say.  Unfortunately, it's a ways away, but I'm very much looking forward to it when it happens (as long as it doesn't end in a rematch).  All in all, it was a good night of fights.  And with the Belcher-Palhares fight (and a little help from Diaz-Miller), I think I can finally start to let go of the fact that they didn't air Guida-Henderson on the first event.

UFC on Fox 2 review

The UFC’s second event on Fox was not a good showing.  Here’s why (in order of occurrence):

Jon Jones- Jon Jones is charismatic, so I expected him to do a good job as an analyst.  Unfortunately, he did not.  The way he was sitting back in his chair and constantly looking down at his notes seemed half-assed.  Maybe he was nervous or not fully prepared, but he didn’t speak with authority when he was talking.  He didn’t come across like an expert on the fighters.  In fact, I thought he was so bad that he dragged down Randy Couture.  And I think it takes a lot to bring down the usually awesome Couture. 

Demian Maia- Opening the broadcast with a Demian Maia fight was a poor choice, because his fights are bi-polar.  He's either really entertaining or he's excruciating.  When he fights on the ground, he’s great to watch.  When he fights standing up, he’s awful.  Because of that, he should never be the first fight on a card.  Ever.  In fact, I’d prefer that he no longer fight on main cards at all.  That way if he has a fight contested on the feet, the world will have been spared of not witnessing a boring decision with some of the sloppiest stand-up around.  And if he has a fight contested on the ground, then it will probably be short enough to be added to the broadcast and the world will get to see his brilliance.  Unfortunately, the former happened.  Just without the sparing part.

Matchmaking/Lack of hype- The fights on the main card of a broadcast should fall into one of two categories: likely to be exciting or high stakes.  The fights on this card were supposed to be the latter.  So while the Bisping-Sonnen and Rashad-Davis fights didn’t deliver the greatest action, you can’t fault the UFC.  They chose high stakes fights over likely to be entertaining.  What you can fault UFC for was the lack of hype around the conclusion of the fights.  The hype for the Sonnen-Silva rematch paled in comparison to what happened after Sonnen tore through Brian Stann.  His post-fight speech wasn’t as good and not having Anderson Silva there made it far less exciting.  I don’t think that was an effective sell for the rematch.  Maybe there was a reason Silva couldn’t be there, but they didn’t have that excuse with Jones and Rashad.  How do you have Jon Jones in the building and not bring him into the cage after the main event?  The best way to take the spotlight off of the lack of action in the cage is to shift the focus to the results and what it means going forward.  They didn’t really do that.  The event didn’t leave you saying “those fights were awesome” or “I can’t wait to see Sonnen-Silva II and Rashad vs. Jones.”  We didn’t get to see awesome fights, nor the proper hype for awesome fights to come.  So for that, I think this event was disappointing.

Now while there were mistakes made on this broadcast, I still think the biggest mistake the UFC has made thus far is not airing Guida-Henderson on their first broadcast.  That was a huge misstep.  It was the perfect introduction fight for casual viewers.  Think of how much favor the UFC would have built up with that fight. How much more forgiving would the casual fan be of boring fights, if they had seen that fight?  Instead, they've been subjected to four fights that haven't delivered.  Instead of the UFC putting their best foot forward, man have they struggled out of the gate (in regards to fight quality).

For future broadcasts, they need to do a better job of making entertaining matchups or driving home the importance of the fights.  And please make Curt Menefee, Randy Couture and Kenny Florian the permanent analysts for the broadcasts.  No more guest analysts that are there just to hype future fights.  If they want to hype a fight, do it in the cage or in an interview ringside.  Leave the analysts to be unbiased and analyze.

Hopefully the next broadcast is successful, so the decision to not air Guida-Henderson doesn't continue to haunt the UFC.

UFC on Fox review

I thought UFC's debut on national television was a success.  The production aspects of the show were spectacular.  The set looked great and I thought Curt Menefee, Dana White, and Brock Lesnar did a great job with their pre-fight and post-fight commentary.  The show had a pretty good flow for only broadcasting one fight.  As far as the fight goes, it went almost exactly as the experts predicted.  Unfortunately, I thought it was a little disappointing though.  With Velasquez being out for over a year and Dos Santos claiming to be less than 100%, neither guy seemed to be at the top of their game.  It wasn't terrible, but it was far from what I think they would deliver if they were both 100%.  On a normal night, it wouldn't be that big of a deal.  But I think the fighters being less than 100% was exacerbated by the fact that it was the only fight on the broadcast.  If the show had been a half-hour longer, allowing the Guida-Henderson fight to be air on television, I think the show would've felt much stronger.  It's one thing for the fight to not deliver the quality expected.  It's another for it to happen as the only fight airing on TV.

But that's what happens in unscripted sports.  Not every fight delivers every time out.  The important thing for the UFC is that they delivered on the things they could control.  The production was great, they crowned a new heavyweight champion, and they promoted their next two big heavyweight fights (Lesnar-Overeem and the winner taking on JDS).  Which is why I consider the show a success, in spite of the fight not being as good as it would be under different circumstances.  I look forward to the day Velasquez and Dos Santos cross paths again and I look forward to many more UFC broadcasts on Fox.

Velasquez the underdog?

I was reading Sherdog’s “Pros Pick” article for tonight’s heavyweight title fight between Cain Velasquez and Junior Dos Santos and I was surprised to see that 12 experts picked Dos Santos to win, while only 4 picked Velasquez.  I wonder why they favor Dos Santos so much.  He didn’t finish Roy Nelson or Shane Carwin, what makes them think he’ll finish Velasquez?  Do they think he has a weak chin?  If memory serves, he did get a little rocked in his fight with Cheick Kongo, but he seems to have a pretty good chin.  Besides, Carwin got a little rocked in his fight with Gonzaga and he wasn’t finished by JDS.

Or is it because Cain hasn’t fought in over a year?  Are they banking on Cain having ring rust?  Because if Cain’s cardio is close to normal, and Dos Santos can’t finish him before the championship rounds, then this fight is Cain’s to lose.  Basically, Dos Santos has to do what he couldn't do to Carwin or Nelson or he's in big trouble.  I’m not saying JDS doesn’t have a shot, but I’m surprised he’s the favorite.  Regardless, these guys are the two best heavyweights in the world and it doesn’t matter to me who wins.  Should be an excellent fight.  It's about time the UFC debuts on national television!