Velasquez the underdog?

I was reading Sherdog’s “Pros Pick” article for tonight’s heavyweight title fight between Cain Velasquez and Junior Dos Santos and I was surprised to see that 12 experts picked Dos Santos to win, while only 4 picked Velasquez.  I wonder why they favor Dos Santos so much.  He didn’t finish Roy Nelson or Shane Carwin, what makes them think he’ll finish Velasquez?  Do they think he has a weak chin?  If memory serves, he did get a little rocked in his fight with Cheick Kongo, but he seems to have a pretty good chin.  Besides, Carwin got a little rocked in his fight with Gonzaga and he wasn’t finished by JDS.

Or is it because Cain hasn’t fought in over a year?  Are they banking on Cain having ring rust?  Because if Cain’s cardio is close to normal, and Dos Santos can’t finish him before the championship rounds, then this fight is Cain’s to lose.  Basically, Dos Santos has to do what he couldn't do to Carwin or Nelson or he's in big trouble.  I’m not saying JDS doesn’t have a shot, but I’m surprised he’s the favorite.  Regardless, these guys are the two best heavyweights in the world and it doesn’t matter to me who wins.  Should be an excellent fight.  It's about time the UFC debuts on national television!